prevention of the drought
forecasting drought
Unlike other disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes, drought does not have an obvious start or end.
In fact, there isn’t even a clear definition for it, making it hard to measure and monitor, let alone predict.
But with better observations of the earth, oceans, and atmosphere and improvements in computer modeling,
scientists think they’ll be able to foresee the chances of drought up to a decade in advance,
and better predict droughts that arise suddenly or last longer than a few months.
*When forecasting of drought, The most important thing is temperature and precipitation.
In fact, there isn’t even a clear definition for it, making it hard to measure and monitor, let alone predict.
But with better observations of the earth, oceans, and atmosphere and improvements in computer modeling,
scientists think they’ll be able to foresee the chances of drought up to a decade in advance,
and better predict droughts that arise suddenly or last longer than a few months.
*When forecasting of drought, The most important thing is temperature and precipitation.
*CPC's prediction
While monitoring has been done for decades, forecasting drought is still in its infancy.
Today, it blends science and art, and the only place it’s done on a national scale is at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
in Camp Springs, Md.
Twice every month, meteorologists there subjectively produce the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which predicts conditions for the next three months.
To create the Drought Outlook, scientists mix data from the Drought Monitor with soil moisture information and the CPC’s three-month forecast of temperature and rainfall. They also incorporate current climate conditions along with past heat and precipitation.
(Predicting the Future of Drought Prediction - Better instruments and models could help scientists forecast droughts years in advance, Prachi Patel)
While monitoring has been done for decades, forecasting drought is still in its infancy.
Today, it blends science and art, and the only place it’s done on a national scale is at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
in Camp Springs, Md.
Twice every month, meteorologists there subjectively produce the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which predicts conditions for the next three months.
To create the Drought Outlook, scientists mix data from the Drought Monitor with soil moisture information and the CPC’s three-month forecast of temperature and rainfall. They also incorporate current climate conditions along with past heat and precipitation.
(Predicting the Future of Drought Prediction - Better instruments and models could help scientists forecast droughts years in advance, Prachi Patel)